It has been a difficult year for England. Steve Borthwick inherited a struggling squad and has opted for a familiar Leicester Tigers based management team. It is extremely light on international experience and looks like one appointed for the future. And I'm fine with the principle. They are not expected to win the forthcoming tournament but they have to show a competitive streak in France as well as laying seeds for the future.
Of course, England's large travelling contingent of fans will be hoping for what looks increasingly like a miracle; in truth, hope makes more sense than expectation. But that's not to say England won't have a successful Rugby World Cup.
If `success' is based around lifting the trophy, 19 teams are set to fail. That's not how it works. For France anything bar Antoine Dupont lifting the Rugby World Cup will be failure. The same applies to a South African side who were staggeringly good at Twickenham against the All Blacks.
Ireland too have shown enough to target the trophy lift and not – as some people claim – a first semi-final. Andy Farrell just isn't that type of man. The All Blacks expectations are always high because....they are the All Blacks. They could produce the odd vintage performance but lack the leadership both on and off the field to win a quarter, semi and final. Three potential winners and a 4th side who aren't good enough.
That leaves 16 sides who can judge the success of the Rugby World Cup on more than what, for some teams, is an airy dream. For England performance is everything. They have a pool in which, for all their problems, they should make it to the quarter finals. If they get it right.
From an English perspective the tournament draw is wonderfully lopsided. Winning the Rugby World Cup would shock me, making the last 4 is a definite target given the fact the world's 5 top ranked teams are in the other side of the draw. Wales, Australia and Fiji all represent winning opportunities - as long as they escape their pool.
Which brings us to Marseille and the opening Saturday of the competition. The opposition is Argentina, a nation that excels at Rugby World Cups and with one with the shrewdest of coaches in Michael Cheika at the helm. Defeat and nations like Japan and Samoa become potential elimination games; beat the Pumas and England will be expected to win the pool.
Owen Farrell is absent through suspension for the crucial game. His old friend, George Ford, is the obvious option to start. He had a mixed August but it is worth remembering he has been out of the international game a while. He will strip much fitter for the Pumas.
If England win this game, it is likely that Borthwick will stick with Ford at 10 and Farrell at 12, recalling that famous semi-final win against New Zealand 4 years ago. The manager believes in territory and pressure. The combination of the two `F's is the best way for England to apply a tactical squeeze. That would probably leave either Ollie Lawrence or Manu Tuilagi battling for the role of gain line carrier at 13.
The omission of Henry Slade disappointed me. He has a touch of class but if the management have a long-term plan to play Ford and Farrell, the Exeter Chief is one too many ball players. That must be the balance in the midfield, especially if Elliot Daly is named on the wing.
He was cleverly used by his Saracen teammate, Farrell, for a while in the first warm up game against Wales. Daly's capacity to pop up in midfield as a gliding runner or a left footed 3rd kicking option, is a way to break the English pattern and confuse defences. For this to work quick ball would help.
There's been a plethora of box kicks and not much quick service for a while but within the space of the first 56 seconds against Fiji, fans glimpsed what a late boost the inclusion of Northampton's Alex Mitchell could be as a replacement for Jack Van Poortvliet. Danny Care has played his best rugby for England off the bench. He injects tempo – even at 36 – the decision of who starts at 9, Mitchell or Ben Youngs, will dictate whether England play it static or mix their running and kicking game.
Fingers are crossed that Tom Curry will be fit and ready for action. His aggressive game and technical expertise over the tackle was badly missed this during the 2023 Guinness Six Nations. Having decided against Alex Dombrandt and lost Billy Vunipola to a 2nd red card, Borthwick needed Ben Earl to make a success of being a hybrid 8/7 against Fiji. Alas, the plan did not come to fruition but Curry and Toulouse's Jack Willis are a formidable pair of fetchers, especially if Maro Itoje can rediscover his very best form.
England's line out will either enable them to control the pace of a game or allow sides like Argentina to off load – potentially to deadly effect. The Saracen, at his best, has the physical attributes and rugby nous to wreck the supply line between Leicester's Julián Montoya and his jumpers. An in form Itoje also injects energy into England in the loose as well as tight.
The return of Ollie Chessum from injury adds extra spring in that set piece. Equally suited in either the front or back row, the Leicester Tiger has the talent to emerge alongside Itoje as Maro did next to Alun Wyn Jones in the 2017 Lions tour of New Zealand.
Jamie George will be one of England's key men. The hooker's know how in both scrum and line out is vital but less well known is his Saracens understudy, Theo Dan. He burst onto the Premiership scene as a high impact and skilful carrier. The 3rd hooker, Jamie Blamire, is a handy act himself, but Dan could build a reputation coming off the bench when England need to press the accelerator. The same can be said for the headline act that is Marcus Smith. His final 15 minutes against Fiji was full of guile, not to mention a smartly taken try.
Beat Argentina and England have an easier run to the semis than France, South Africa and Ireland. It’s crazy but true. Yes, the preparation this summer hasn’t been ideal, there is no denying the fact. But at the 2007 Rugby World Cup in France, England lost 36-0 to South Africa in their opening match before fighting their way to the final. A repeat may be unlikely but it is not impossible.
